An evaluation of an advection fog prediction model

Author / Creator

Weyman, James

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Online

Physical

Summary

In response to Air Weather Service requirements, the Air Force Geophysics Lab has been involved in research in the development of mesoscale advection fog prediction techniques. A two-dimensional fo...

In response to Air Weather Service requirements, the Air Force Geophysics Lab has been involved in research in the development of mesoscale advection fog prediction techniques. A two-dimensional fog prediction model developed at the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility (NEPRF) was selected for evaluation because it can operate on a mini-computer of the size planned for the Air Force's Automated Weather Distribution System (AWDS). Six case studies developed by Calspan Advanced Technology Center were used to test the model's accuracy. These case studies covered a wide range of fog/stratus formation and dissipation stages. Four major weaknesses were identified in the model. The most important was that cloud tops increased in temperature through infrared radiative heat processes rather than decreased. The other weaknesses include lack of solar radiation processes, unreliable treatment of the height of mixed layer during stable conditions, and insufficient handling of vertical motions. The model may have potential in AWDS. However, these weaknesses must first be corrected.

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