Website Search
Find information on spaces, staff, and services.
Catalog Search
Books
Brexit uncertainty and its (dis)service effects
- Author / Creator
- Available as
- Online
- Summary
-
We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the in...
We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points.
Details
- Creator
- Saad Ahmad, Nuno Limão, Sarah Oliver, Serge Shikher
- Format
- Books
- Language
- English
- Contributors
- Publication
-
- Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020
- Physical Details
-
- 1 online resource (40 pages) : illustrations
- data file
- OCLC
- on1225180192
- "November 2020"
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 22-24).
Subjects
- European Union -- Commerce -- Great Britain -- Econometric models.
- European Union -- History -- 21st century -- Econometric models.
- Uncertainty -- Economic aspects -- Great Britain -- Econometric models.
- Great Britain -- Foreign economic relations -- European Union countries -- Econometric models.
- European Union countries -- Foreign economic relations -- Great Britain -- Econometric models.
- Foreign trade regulation -- Econometric models.
- International trade -- Econometric models.