Inversions in US presidential elections, 1836-2016

Author / Creator

Geruso, Michael author

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Online

Summary

Inversions--in which the popular vote winner loses the election--have occurred in 4 US Presidential elections. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely...

Inversions--in which the popular vote winner loses the election--have occurred in 4 US Presidential elections. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one percentage point (which has happened in one-eighth of Presidential elections), 40% will be inversions in expectation. Inversion probabilities are asymmetric, in various periods favoring Whigs, Democrats, or Republicans. Feasible policy changes--including awarding each state's Electoral College ballots proportionally between parties rather than awarding all to the state winner--could substantially reduce inversion probabilities, though not in close elections.

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