The influence of policy, economic and social variables on solar photovoltaic market maturity in U.S. states with an emphasis on Minnesota and Wisconsin from 2001-2016

Author / Creator

Nusz, Benjamin, author

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Summary

The United States solar photovoltaic (PV) market has seen rapid growth in the first half of this decade (2011-2016). Over this period, Minnesota and Wisconsin have seen divergent solar growth rates...

The United States solar photovoltaic (PV) market has seen rapid growth in the first half of this decade (2011-2016). Over this period, Minnesota and Wisconsin have seen divergent solar growth rates. The rate of solar deployment in Minnesota has greatly outpaced Wisconsin in this period. This thesis summarizes demographic, solar production and policy information at the state level to analyze these market irregularities and the efficacy of state solar policies. A quantitative analysis of state level data sought correlations between solar PV market maturity and economic conditions, demographic characteristics and state actions. Multiple outputs were collected as indicators of mature solar markets. Multiple single point metrics were analyzed to represent state profiles. When these metrics were analyzed with demographic and policy considerations, it was found that several non-policy factors strongly correlated with strong solar markets. Notably, Google search interest data was a relevant and new correlation technique and a likely predictor of solar PV demand. Solar economics demonstrated to be the most important factor. By 2017, 25 states had a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) equal to current market rates of electricity. Reaching grid parity provided the strongest economic indicator of robust solar markets with strong correlations with all solar PV market outcomes. Allowing third party ownership (TPO) was found to be the most effective piece of legislation that states can enact. All but one of the top producing solar states allow TPO. The additional analysis of Minnesota and Wisconsin demonstrated that effective application of solar related policies matters more than their presence. The policies implemented in Minnesota's 2013 Solar Energy Jobs Act were impactful and immediately effective at growing the solar industry. However, this legislation did not impact all sectors equally. The majority of the growth was in utility scale developments. The residential market was fairly consistent between the two states, which demonstrated to be a better predictor of solar jobs.

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