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OECD economic outlook. 99
- Author / Creator
- Available as
- Online
- Summary
-
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years.
Details
- Creator
- OECD
- Format
- Books
- Language
- English
- Publication
-
- 2016th ed
- Paris : OECD Publishing, [2016]
- ©2016
- Physical Details
-
- 1 online resource (316 pages)
- ISBNs
- 9789264257870, 926425787X, 9264257861
- OCLC
- on1024281857
- Intro -- Table of contents -- Summary of projections -- Editorial: Policymakers: Act now to break out of the low-growth trap and deliver on our promises -- Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation -- Introduction -- Economic prospects and risks -- Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth is set to remain subdued -- Figure 1.2. Non-OECD import volume growth collapsed in 2015 -- Figure 1.3. Financial conditions in major advanced economies have become less supportive -- Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly -- Figure 1.4. GDP growth projections for the major economies -- Table 1.2. OECD labour market conditions will improve slowly -- Figure 1.5. Labour market outcomes are improving slowly -- Figure 1.6. Weak investment and productivity growth have hit potential output growth -- Figure 1.7. Capital stock growth and the investment rate will pick up from low levels -- Figure 1.8. Investment growth is expected to strengthen in the euro area and the United States -- Figure 1.9. The composition of total investment growth in advanced countries will continue to differ -- Figure 1.10. Contributions to the annual growth of OECD and non-OECD import volumes -- Table 1.3. World trade growth remains very weak -- Figure 1.11. China is on-shoring its value chain -- Figure 1.12. Stronger trade growth would help to boost productivity -- Figure 1.13. Broad measures of labour market slack remain elevated -- Figure 1.14. Participation rates have risen but labour force growth has slowed in several countries -- Figure 1.15. The relationship between wage growth and unemployment has changed in some countries -- Figure 1.16. Energy prices have pulled down inflation across the OECD -- Figure 1.17. The unemployment gap has recently contributed little to price inflation -- Box 1.1. Financial market shocks from Brexit
- The impact of financial shocks on real GDP by 2018 -- Figure 1.18. Credit has increased substantially in some large EMEs -- Figure 1.19. EME's external vulnerabilities have increased due to exchange rate depreciations -- Policy requirements -- Figure 1.20. Real short and long-term interest rates have been low or negative -- Box 1.2. Effects of central bank negative interest rates -- Interest rates have become negative across different maturities -- Characteristics of negative interest rate frameworks -- Figure 1.21. The slope of the yield curve has declined -- Figure 1.22. Some central banks have become dominant holders of domestic government bonds -- Figure 1.23. Markets have become pessimistic about the outlook for banks -- Figure 1.24. Fiscal stances in OECD countries -- Box 1.3. Conditions for an increase in public investment to lift growth in OECD economies -- Long-term effect of a sustained increase in public investment by 0.5% of GDP -- Box 1.4. Structural reform priorities in difficult macroeconomic conditions -- Bibliography -- Annex 1.1. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections -- Annex 1.2 Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities -- Bibliography -- Table 1.A2.1. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities -- Table 1.A2.2. Financial-accounts-related risk factors to financial stability -- Chapter 2. Promoting Productivity and Equality: A Twin Challenge -- Summary -- Introduction -- The twin challenge: Slowing productivity and rising inequality -- Figure 2.1. Productivity growth has declined since the 1990s -- Figure 2.2. Labour income of the typical worker has grown less than productivity -- Figure 2.3. The redistributive power of taxes and transfers has declined since the 1990s -- Figure 2.4. Disposable income inequality has increased since 1990
- Figure 2.5. Labour productivity growth has been low during the cyclical downturn after the global financial crisis -- Figure 2.6. The productivity gap between the globally most productive firms and other firms has widened -- Figure 2.7. Labour income inequality and productivity dispersion across firms are positively correlated -- Policies to promote productivity and equality -- Table 2.1. The effects on growth, productivity and equality vary across different public spending policies -- Figure 2.8. Changing the spending structure in favour of public investment can deliver large income gains for households across the distribution -- Figure 2.9. Reduced regulation in network industries has increased income across the distribution -- Figure 2.10. Reduced regulation in network industries has increased labour market transitions for low-income groups -- Figure 2.11. Equity finance has been more favourable to growth than credit finance -- Conclusion -- Figure 2.12. The financial sector wage premium¹ increases along the earnings distribution -- Bibliography -- Chapter 3. Developments in Individual OECD and Selected Non-Member Economies -- Australia -- Austria -- Belgium -- Brazil -- Canada -- Chile -- China -- Colombia -- Costa Rica -- Czech Republic -- Denmark -- Estonia -- Euro Area -- Finland -- France -- Germany -- Greece -- Hungary -- Iceland -- India -- Indonesia -- Ireland -- Israel -- Italy -- Japan -- Korea -- Latvia -- Lithuania -- Luxembourg -- Mexico -- Netherlands -- New Zealand -- Norway -- Poland -- Portugal -- Russia -- Slovak Republic -- Slovenia -- South Africa -- Spain -- Sweden -- Switzerland -- Turkey -- United Kingdom -- United States -- Statistical Annex -- Annex Tables -- Annex Table 1. Real GDP -- Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP -- Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure -- Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure
- Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation -- Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation -- Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation -- Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand -- Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP -- Annex Table 10. Quarterly demand and output projections -- Annex Table 11. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries -- Annex Table 12. Output gaps -- Annex Table 13. GDP deflators -- Annex Table 14. Private consumption deflators -- Annex Table 15. Consumer price indices -- Annex Table 16. Oil and other primary commodity markets -- Annex Table 17. Compensation per employee -- Annex Table 18. Labour productivity -- Annex Table 19. Employment and labour force -- Annex Table 20. Labour force, employment and unemployment -- Annex Table 21. Unemployment rates: national definitions -- Annex Table 22. Harmonised unemployment rates -- Annex Table 23. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections -- Annex Table 24. Potential GDP and productive capital stock -- Annex Table 25. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs -- Annex Table 26. Household saving rates -- Annex Table 27. Gross national saving -- Annex Table 28. Household wealth and indebtedness -- Annex Table 29. General government total outlays -- Annex Table 30. General government total tax and non-tax receipts -- Annex Table 31. General government financial balances -- Annex Table 32. General government cyclically-adjusted balances -- Annex Table 33. General government underlying balances -- Annex Table 34. General government underlying primary balances -- Annex Table 35. General government net debt interest payments -- Annex Table 36. General government gross financial liabilities -- Annex Table 37. General government net financial liabilities
- Annex Table 38. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt -- Annex Table 39. Short-term interest rates -- Annex Table 40. Long-term interest rates -- Annex Table 41. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar) -- Annex Table 42. Effective exchange rates -- Annex Table 43. Nominal house prices -- Annex Table 44. Real house prices -- Annex Table 45. House price-to-rent ratio -- Annex Table 46. House price-to-income ratio -- Annex Table 47. Export volumes of goods and services -- Annex Table 48. Import volumes of goods and services -- Annex Table 49. Export prices of goods and services -- Annex Table 50. Import prices of goods and services -- Annex Table 51. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices -- Annex Table 52. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs -- Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services -- Annex Table 54. Export performance for total goods and services -- Annex Table 55. Import penetration -- Annex Table 56. Shares in world exports and imports -- Annex Table 57. Geographical structure of world trade growth -- Annex Table 58. Trade balances for goods and services -- Annex Table 59. Balance of primary income -- Annex Table 60. Balance of secondary income -- Annex Table 61. Current account balances -- Annex Table 62. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP -- Annex Table 63. Structure of current account balances of major world regions