Spatial analysis of feedback mechanisms between environmental policies, ecosystems and behavior

Author / Creator

Zipp, Katherine Yoder, dissertant

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Online

Physical

Summary

This dissertation concerns two examples of spatial-dynamic processes that link ecological and economic systems: (1) land development and (2) the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS). The locati...

This dissertation concerns two examples of spatial-dynamic processes that link ecological and economic systems: (1) land development and (2) the spread of aquatic invasive species (AIS). The location of land development is widely viewed as a major driver of changes in ecosystems, while proximity to ecosystems has an important impact on land development. Recognizing this reciprocal relationship, joint ecological-economic models are increasingly being used to understand the feedbacks of land-use change and ecosystem services. Another important example of the need to combine ecological and economic data is the problem of AIS. Many invaders are spread among water bodies by boating so that managing AIS requires close attention to the feedback loops between public policies, boater behavior, and ecosystems. In the first chapter and second chapters, I investigate the effect of conserving land on the net change in local habitat. I develop a replicable panel-data solution to the problem that open-space conservation is endogenous in a land development model. I use a long time series of historical plat maps and available GIS layers in Door County, Wisconsin to implement an identification strategy based on panel data with spatial/temporal variation in development and conservation decisions. My main finding is that open-space conservation has increased the rate of development on agricultural and residential parcels and can lead to a net increase in the amount of development relative to a no-conservation counter-factual, although there is substantial heterogeneity in this effect. In the third chapter, I combine an economic model of boater trip decisions with an ecological model of AIS dispersal to assess the spatial distribution of invasion on a heterogeneous landscape. I use records of boater trips to lakes in the Northern Highland Lake District of Wisconsin to parameterize a random utility model of boater behavior and, then, predict the number of live propagules introduced by boaters into uninvaded lakes in any given season. Using this estimated propagule pressure along with lake characteristics and historical invasion data in a discrete duration model, I predict the probability of invasion in a given season conditional on a lake being uninvaded at the beginning of the season.

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