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China and India, 2025 : A Comparative Assessment
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China and India, the world's two most populous countries, will exercise increasing influence in international affairs in the coming decades. This document assesses the relative prospects of China a...
China and India, the world's two most populous countries, will exercise increasing influence in international affairs in the coming decades. This document assesses the relative prospects of China and India through 2025 in four domains: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology, and defense spending and procurement. In each domain, the authors try to answer the following questions: Who is ahead? By how much? and Why?.
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- Format
- Books
- Language
- English
- Contributors
- Publication
-
- 1st ed
- Santa Monica : RAND Corporation, The, 2011
- ©2011
- Physical Details
-
- 1 online resource (164 pages)
- ISBNs
- 9780833058867, 9780833050427, 083305886X, 0833050427
- OCLC
- ocn756484515, ocn747818635, ocn746835028
- Intro -- Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Summary -- Figures -- Tables -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter One: Objectives, Background, Context -- Chapter Two: Population Trends in China and India: Demographic Dividend or Demographic Drag? -- Population Growth and Its Components -- Birth Rates -- Death Rates -- Population Growth Rates -- Age-Sex Structure of the Population -- Working-Age and Dependent Populations -- Youth -- Working-Age Population -- Older Population -- Dependency Ratios -- Sex Ratios -- Opportunity to Reap a Demographic Dividend -- Education -- Health -- Women in the Economy -- Infrastructure -- Other Implications of Changes in Population Age-Sex Composition -- Implications of Gender Imbalances and the Changing Composition of "Dependents" -- Implications for the Armed Forces -- Regional Differences -- Uncertainties and Alternative Scenarios -- Summary Assessment of the Relative Strengths and Weaknesses Brought About by Demographic Trends in China and India -- Chapter Three: China-India: A Macroeconomic Assessment -- Introduction: Forecasts of Economic Growth in China and India -- Studies by Academic Authors and Institutions -- Studies by Business Organizations and Authors -- Studies by International Organizations -- Similarities and Differences Among the Clusters -- Five Growth Scenarios and Concluding Observations -- Chapter Four: Science and Technology -- Introduction -- Highlights and Global Trends -- Global Trends -- China -- India -- Quality and Comparability of S& -- E Diplomas and the Skilled Diaspora -- Quality of Engineers Compared -- Graduate and Postgraduate Engineering -- Emerging Models of Diaspora Mobilization -- Science and Technology Forecast: India and China in 2025 -- Projection -- Discussion -- A Qualitative Look at China's and India's Innovation
- "Reverse Innovation" and the Bottom of the Pyramid -- High-End Innovation -- Other Approximations to R& -- D -- Conclusions -- Chapter Five: Chinese and Indian Defense and Defense Procurement Spending to 20251 -- Analytic Approach -- Baseline Estimates for China -- Baseline Estimates for India -- Baseline Estimate of Indian Defense Procurement Spending -- Comparative Forecasts of Defense and Defense Procurement Spending in 2025 -- Growth Rate Forecasts of Defense Spending in 2025 -- Parametric Defense Spending Forecasts Based on Varied Assumptions About Real GDP Growth Rates and Defense Shares of GDP -- Growth Rate Forecasts of Defense Procurement Spending in 2025 -- Broader Comparisons -- Update: The Chinese and Indian 2010 Defense Budgets -- Chinese Defense Spending in 2010 -- Indian Defense Spending in 2010 -- India or China: Which Is Likely to Have the Edge in 2025? -- Guns, Butter, and Defense Share of GDP -- Key Drivers of Defense and Defense Procurement Spending Estimates -- Apples and Oranges: "National Defense" Versus "National Security" Spending -- Spending on Strategic Nuclear, Missile, and Space Forces -- Chinese Opacity and Indian Transparency in Defense Spending -- Conclusions -- Chapter Six: Conclusions and Implications -- Demography -- Macroeconomics -- Science and Technology -- Defense and Procurement Expenditures -- Implications -- Appendix A: Meta-Analysis of Economic Growth in China and India -- Appendix B: Detailed Calculations for, and Additional Figures Showing, the Projections in Chapter Four -- Appendix C: Analytic Tables -- References