ANTICIPATED GROWTH AND CHANGE
The future demand for land use and natural resources in
the Region will depend, to a large extent, upon future
population, household, and employment levels. Projections
of future population, household, and employment levels
are required to establish the overall scale of growth and
development which the land use plan must seek to
accommodate.
As part of the continuing regional planning program,
the Regional Planning Commission undertakes intensive
studies of the regional population and economy following
each decennial U. S. Census. These studies culminate in
the preparation of revised long-range projections of popu-
lation, household, and employment levels for the Region,
with the projection period extended in time under each
successive study. The most recent demographic and eco-
nomic studies resulted in the preparation of new projec-
tions of population, household, and employment levels for
the Region through the year 2020.
In response to the increased uncertainty surrounding
future social and economic conditions in the Region, the
Commission has incorporated an "alternative futures"
approach into the regional planning program. Under this
approach, three alternative future regional growth
scenarios have been postulated, two intended to represent
low and high extremes of possible future growth and
change, and the third intended to represent an intermediate
future lying between the extremes. A set of regional and
county-level population, household, and employment
projections for the year 2020 was developed for each
scenario. This approach enables the consideration of a
range of future population, household, and employment
levels in land use, transportation, and other public facility
planning. It provides a basis for determining how plans
will perform under a range of possible future conditions.
Year 2020 population, household, and employment levels
attendant to the three growth scenarios vary considerably.
Under the high-growth scenario, the resident population of
the Region would increase by about 556,600 persons, or
about 31 percent, from 1,810,400 persons in 1990 to
2,367,000 persons by the year 2020. The intermediate-
growth scenario envisions that the regional population
would increase by 267,500 persons, or about 15 percent, to
2,077,900 persons by the year 2020. The low-growth
scenario envisions that the regional population would
increase by 114,600 persons, or about 6 percent, to
1,925,000 persons by the year 2020.
Under a high-growth scenario, the number of households

in the Region would increase by 229,000, or about 34 per-

cent, from 676,100 households in 1990 to 905,100
households by the year 2020. Under an intermediate-
growth scenario, the number of households would increase
by 151,000, or 22 percent, to 827,100 households by the
year 2020. Under a low-growth scenario, the number of
households would increase by 123,000, or 18 percent, to
799,100 households by the year 2020.
Under a high-growth scenario, total employment in
the Region would increase by 295,400 jobs, or about
28 percent, from 1,067,200 jobs in 1990 to 1,362,600
jobs by the year 2020. Under an intermediate-growth
scenario, regional employment would increase by 209,900
jobs, or 20 percent, to 1,277,100 jobs by the year 2020.
Under a low-growth scenario, regional employment would
increase by 149,700 jobs, or 14 percent, to 1,216,900 jobs
by the year 2020.
As a practical matter, the preparation of a land use plan
must be targeted toward a single set of population, house-
hold, and employment projections. It was the collective
judgment of the Technical Coordinating and Advisory
Committee on Regional Land Use Planning that future
population, household, and employment levels within
the Region would be most closely approximated by the
intermediate-growth scenario. Accordingly, the Committee
directed that the year 2020 land use plan be prepared to
accommodate population, household, and employment
levels projected for the Region under the intermediate-
growth scenario.
While selecting the intermediate-growth scenario as a
basis for extending the land use plan to the year 2020, the
Advisory Committee did recommend an adjustment of
the county-level population, household, and employment
projections attendant to the intermediate-growth scenario
in order to promote a more centralized urban land use
development pattern within the Region. The Committee
determined that the year 2020 regional land use plan, like
the 2010 land use plan, should seek to moderate the
historical decentralization of population, households, and
employment, and to support and preserve urban develop-
ment in the older urban centers of the Region. The adjust-
ments to the county-level projections made in this respect
included the allocation of more population and house-
holds to Milwaukee County than initially projected, with
corresponding reductions in design year population and
household levels for Ozaukee, Walworth, Washington, and
Waukesha Counties. In Kenosha and Racine Counties, the
planned population and household distributions were cen-
tralized around the Kenosha and Racine urbanized areas.
The planned distribution of employment within the Region

was also centralized.

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