FOREIGN RELATIONS, 1934, VOLUME III



and Bukharin have told me that, in addition to communist workers,
at least one-half the professors in the Japanese universities and schools
are now secret members of the communist party. I cannot, of course,
estimate the value of these statements. They were, however, made
to me in the course of intimate conversations with every appearance
of frankness. Radek and Bukharin believe that if war can be delayed
for a few years a social upheaval in Japan may not be out of the
question. They pretend to believe that the ultimate solution of the
Soviet-Japanese conflict will be a communist Japan and a communist
Russia marching hand to hand to communize China.
  (2) Although there is little or no divergence of opinion as to the
eventual certainty of war, there is considerable divergence of opinion
as to the date of Japan's attack. Voroshilov and the Army consider
the menace imminent and regard the double-tracking of the Trans-
Siberian Railroad as the most urgent task of the Soviet Union.
  Litvinov, with whom I have discussed the question many times,
believes that Japan will not attack this spring or summer. He hopes
to negotiate a peaceful settlement of the Chinese Eastern Railway
question. Since he has said to me that the sale of the railroad to
Manchukuo would constitute de facto recognition of the government
of that territory, I should not be surprised if, in order to keep Japan
quiet, he should accord full recognition to Manchukuo.
  Sokolnikov, who is now -in charge of Far Eastern affairs in the
Soviet Foreign Office, and Karakhan, the leading Soviet expert on
that area, agree that Japan will not attack this spring or summer.
They believe that Japan will employ the next six months to extend
her influence in North China and Mongolia and to consolidate her
position in Manchuria.
  (3) Preparations for war in the Far East are being pushed with
all possible speed. Work on the double-tracking of the Trans-Siberian
Railroad has progressed all winter in spite of physical difficulties.
Submarines are now being produced in the Soviet Union in such quan-
tities that Voroshilov has assured me that he is now completely satis-
fied with his Far Eastern flotilla. The statement has been made to
me by two Soviet officials that these submarines are shipped in com-
pleted form to the Far East, stretched over three large flat cars. I
have been unable to check the truth of this statement.
  (4) Everyone in Moscow believes that time is running in favor of
the Soviet Union and that within a year and a half the Soviet Union
will be impregnable. The Soviet Foreign Office is, therefore, making
every effort to postpone the conflict with Japan and to make certain
that the Soviet Union will not be attacked by other nations if engaged
in war with Japan.



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