Preparations for the Summit Conference 179
72.  Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



72.   Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for
      Policy Planning (Smith) to Secretary of State Herter


                                        Washington, January 28, 1960.


SUBJECT
    Berlin

                          I. Present Prospect
    1. Prospect. If we stand on our last Geneva offer at a Summit
Khrushchev will, in the view of Ambassador Thompson, go for a sepa-
rate peace treaty with East Germany.
    This view is supported by the intelligence community. NIE
11-4-591 says: "If they (the Soviets) decide that further progress is
im-
possible by comparatively mild methods, they will probably make the
separate peace treaty". INR's Intelligence Report #81672 suggests that
the final Western position at Geneva would not meet the "minimum"
Soviet requirement "that it cannot be construed as constituting Soviet
recognition in perpetuity of Western rights and access arrangements
with respect to Berlin, (i.e., it must) stipulate nothing concerning
rights . . . If some sort of agreement on Berlin or Germany satisfactory
to Moscow did not eventuate before much time had passed, the USSR
would probably move to sign a separate peace treaty... ".
    Ambassador Thompson suggests that although Khrushchev would
probably wish to draw out the process of negotiating a separate peace
treaty, he could conclude that the best time for bold action would be in
the period between the US national conventions and the US election.
    2. US. Soviet action which purported to expunge Western rights in
Berlin would represent an evident and major set-back to the US, in view


    Source: Department of State, PPS Files: Lot 67 D 548, Germany. Secret;
Eyes Only.
Sent through EUR, M, and S/S. The source text was initialed by Smith and
Calhoun and
bears a notation that Merchant saw it. Copies were also sent to Bohlen, Reinhardt,
and
Hillenbrand. Attached to the source text was a note from Calhoun to Merchant,
suggest-
ing that the differences between this memorandum and Kohler's response (see
attachment
1 below) should be reconciled before it was submitted to the Secretary of
State. Merchant
wrote on the note that he believed Herter should see the whole file as it
stood rather than
one agreed text.
    1 Dated February 9 (presumably Smith saw a preliminary draft). A copy
of this
79-page paper, "Main Trends in Soviet Capabilities and Policies, 1959-1964,"
is ibid., INR-
NIE Files.
    2Dated December 2,1959. A copy of this 11-page paper, "Possible
Soviet Position on
Berlin and Germany at a Summit Conference," is in National Archives
and Records Ad-
ministration, RG 59, OSS-INR Intelligence Files.
    3Ellipses in the source text.