THE WORLD WAR: PERIOD OF AMERICAN NEUTRALITY 699



hopes to finish England by submarines, then, later, take the scalp
of Japan, Russia, and Japan [sic] separately. The Allies ought to
remember what Ben Franklin said about hanging together or sep-
arately. I get the above scheme from very good authority.
      Yours ever
                                               J. W. G [ERARD]

763.72/3173i
The Ambassador in Germany (Gerard) to the Secretary of State

                                  BERLIN, January 16, 1917.
                                         [Received February 6.]
  DEAR MR. SECRETARY: The nearer I get to the situation the more
I consider the President's peace note an exceedingly wise move. It
has made it difficult for the Terrorists here to start anything which
will bring Germany in conflict with the U. S. The Chancellor,
Zimmermann, Stumm; have all ridiculed the idea that Germany
will go back on her Sussex pledges; but if she does, then the peace
note makes it easier for America to enter the war on the Allies side
with a clear conscience and the knowledge on the part of the people
at home that the President did everything possible to keep us out
iof the mess.
  Our love feast here and its advertisement all over Germany has
also helped matters.
  While the Chancellor, et al, have all stated to me that they would
not name Germany's peace terms, even in confidence, to the Presi-
-dent, I believe that they will eventually do so, if they really want
peace.
  Everything points to a coming crisis in the matter of food, how
serious it will be even the officials themselves do not know, as there
is much concealed food and much smuggling over the various fron-
tiers. In some parts of Germany, the country police or genm d'armes
are searching the farmhouses thrice weekly.
  I have secured permission to visit and inspect the enslaved Bel-
gians, have named as inspectors all the members of our staff speaking
French, but as yet have not received the passes.
  My wife, just returned from a weeks visit to her sister in Hungary,
reports a great desire for peace and that the persons who a year ago
said that the President could have nothing to do with peace or nego-
tiations, now say he is the only possible mediator. This comes from
high government circles there.

      Yours ever
                                               J. W. G[LERAm]