THE WORLD WAR: PERIOD OF AMERICAN NEUTRALITY 307



  Our attitude to the blockade therefore will have far-reaching re-
sults for us and for the whole world. Permanent peace [depends on
the] active sympathy of the two great English-speaking nations.
There is [no other] practical and enduring basis [for] it. Besides
nothing else can long save us from war. We are the larger in white
population and potentially the stronger of these nations [and] per-
manent peace cannot come without our active sympathy with the
smaller empire which is now spending [itself to withstand] the
assault [of] military monarchy on free government. If we accept
the forthcoming blockade as England acceded to [accepted] our
weaker blockade against the Confederacy we shall save the world
from the aggressive ambitions both of Germany and of Japan. If
we insist [on] technical objections in order to build up a code of
naval and marine law, one or both the aggressive military mon-
archies will smash our legal structure in their assault on democratic
civilization.
  Events are pushing us to the necessity of a [sharp] decision. It
may be a silent [decision] but it must be clear. We should already
have been drawn into this conflict but for England's complete naval
supremacy over Germany. If the German Navy had the seas we
should have been goaded into war. The only course that can insure
peace for us in the future in the world-wide conflict between military
monarchy and free government is such a direction of events as will
bring an active sympathy between the British Empire and the
United States. The forthcoming blockade will give probably the
last tactical opportunity for such an active sympathy.
  For these reasons this seems the critical moment of this war for us,
a moment that demands a constructive and [decisive] suggestion. If
you have such a suggestion, however tentative, that I may privately
use it may secure a permanent peace after this war ends and change
the course of history for a century.
  I write this [profound] conviction having in mind only our own
interests, our own security, and our own duty to our democratic
ideals. This is our only practical lead [to insure a lasting peace.]
                                                          PAGE

78.72112/22001
           The Secretary of State to President Wilson

                               WASHINGTON, January 24, 1916.
  MY DEAR MR. PRESIDENT: I enclose a confidential telegram received
from Ambassador Page at London,9' which was decoded yesterday.
The telegram was in the private cipher and is more or less gar-

"Supra.