THE WORLD WAR: PERIOD OF AMERICAN NEUTRALITY 697



763.72/3107i
The Ambassador in Germany (Gerard) to the Secretary of State

                                   BERLIN, January 3, 1917.
                                        [Received January 22.]
  My DEAR MR. SECRETARY: The weather is most depressing. Dark
and rain every day. All hands seem cross. Zimmermann, I think
finds it much more difficult to be the responsible first than the criti-
cising second. It is not as easy as it looked to him.
  The Kaiser, I hear direct, stated the other day that he did not
expect peace now, that the English would try a great offensive in the
Spring and would fail.
  Hoover writes me that the Germans are violating all the pledges
in Belgium. He expects a year of great difficulties.
  I hear this confirmed on the best authority and that even the Ger-
man official who is supposed to see that food is not sent from Belgium
to Germany, in violation of Germany's pledges, sends out butter to
his family.
  I hear on the best authority that there is an absolute reign of terror
in Belgium. Sudden and arbitrary arrests etc. I think the Germans
want to see all foreign diplomats out of Bucharest and Brussels . . .

  The greatest danger re submarine war is that unthinking persons
in the United States may start a crusade against the President's
policy, encourage the Germans in the belief that we are divided and
lead them to resume reckless acts in that belief. The continuance of
a strong front is the best way to keep the peace.
  Both Zimmermann and the Chancellor asked me about Bernstorff'
and, returning good for evil, I said that he was 0. K., on very
good terms with the government, well liked, and that no one could
do better. One of his kind friends sent Zimmermann the "Sketch"'
bathing picture.
  The Germans will do nothing about Belgium. The deportation
was a military measure, demanded by Ludendorff, who constantly
fears a British landing on the Belgian coast.

  The food situation grows worse. Potato cards must now be pre-
sented in restaurants and hotels. I doubt if the potatoes can last
beyond April. There is food in Rumania but much will go to
troops, Austrians and Turks, and railways are so used by troops
etc. that it is doubtful if any food from there can reach Germany for
months.