MINERALS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY—1989  23output levels of the first
5
months were maintained through yearend, but even if they were not, which
is more likely, some 
gain was probably achieved. A 3% growth 
in Indian steel output seemed likely, as 
was a2%gainin aluminum outputm spite 
ofasmallreductionm bauxite production. 
Never very strong in its nonferrous metal 
resource base except for aluminum, India 
suffered a slight setback in copper output 
at all levels, but registered gains in both 
lead and zinc in terms of both mine yield 
and refmery output in 1990. 
The most newsworthy happenings in the Pacific Islands probably werethe 17%
decline of Papua New Guinea's mine copper output occasioned by civil strife
and a 7% shortfall in New Caledonia's mine nickel output. On the other side
of 
the coin, tiny Christmas Island south of 
Indonesia returned to the roster of phos~ phate rock producers, if only in
a small 
way, reviving the island's one industrial activity. 
 
BraziL—In recent years, Brazil has at- 
tamed a very significant role as a supplier ofmined tin to the world and
has played a growing role as a steel producer, these adding notablyto the
country's long-term prominence as a source of iron ore. Regrettably, Brazil's
post-1989 performance registers negatively for each of these key commodities.
At least in the case of iron ore, the evident 1990 production shortfall of
about 0.8% was less on a percentage basis than the estimated 2% shortfall
for the world in total. For steel, however, where world output also apparently
dropped about 2%, Brazil registered a downturn of almost 18%, a phenomenal
decline for a producer of more than 25 million tons (1989 level). In the
case of tin, Brazil, the world's leading producer in 1989, accounting for
23% of the total, registered a 21% drop in output for 1990 while the world
total declined by only about 7%. The Brazilian output reduction accounted
for most of the shortfall in the market economy world, but the country nonetheless
remained the world's leading producer. 
On a more positive note, preliminary reports suggest an increase in output
of bauxite and only a modest decline in aluminum production in 1990, enabling
the country to retain its rank among the top five producers of these commodities.

As for the outlook for Brazil, despite its vast resource potential, the country's
economic plight impedes further foreign in- 
vestment, if for no reason other than the overall economic insecurity in
a country burdened with so large a foreign debt. Global reaction against
continued removal of rainforest, essential for charcoal ironmaking, was another
negative factor 
linked to mineral industry activity that 
attracted worldwide attention. 
 
 Mexico.—Despite large foreign debts, 
Mexico, in direct contrast to Brazil, regis- 
tered asuccessful yearforitsferrous metal industry with iron ore output advancing
by almost 7%, and steel output up by more than 10%. The country, more noted
for nonferrous metal operations than for its iron and steel, showed substantial
gains in mine output ofcopper, lead, silver, and zinc. At the same time,
output of refmed copper and lead and slab zinc output fell marginally. Of
some significance was the modest 1% upturn in crude oil output and a presumably
equal or near-equal growth in natural gas production after stagnation in
the former and adownturn in the latter in 1989. 
In a mineral activity not often considered by many as a significant Mexican
export product, the country's cement industry continued to market a substantial
amount ofcement inthe United States—a quantity on the order of
4.5
million tons or about 20% of Mexican output. The country's cement output
was expected to advance by almost 5% in 1990. 
 
 Oilier Latin Ainthca.—Latin Amenca's premier copper producer,
Chile,
registered asmalldrop in mine copper output in~ 1990, but possible revenue
losses from this decline were likely more than cornpensated by a significant
increase in refmed copper output, thereby permitting the countryto increase
revenues perton of copper exported by shipping a higher proportion oftotal
output intheform of a higher unit value product. An increase in mine silver
output was also recorded and may have reached 25% growth, thereby further
addingtoexportearnings. Among lesser commodities, there apparently was a
substantial slump in the byproduct recovery of molybdenum by the copper industry.

Peru's mineral industry evidenced 
across-the-board reductions in output of the traditional foreign exchange
earnens—copper, lead, silver, and zinc—adding to this
Andean
country's economic woes. 
Venezuela seemed to enjoy an upturn in 
1990. A modest slump in domestic steel output was at least partly offset
by an upturn in aluminum production, this 
based to an increasing degree on imported 
raw material. A 20%growth in oil output, which began the year above the 1989
level 
and increased appreciably in September following the cutoff of Iraqi and
Kuwaiti oil, was also abnght spot forthe Venezuelan economy. 
Colombia, too, probably benefitted from the situation in the Near East; a
6% growth in crude oil output was indicated by returns through midyear, and
further increases seemed likely. 
Oil, also the chief mineral commodity export exchange earner for Ecuador,
apparently did not register as pronounced a set of gains as it did in Venezuela
and Colombia, orit was regulated inlarge part by pipeline capacity from the
inland fields to the coast and by loading capacities there. Nevertheless,
production seemingly was raised close to delivery capacity, exceeding 1989
levels and closely approaching the record high of 1988. 
Despitethe peaceful shiftin government in Nicaraguathroughthe election process,
civil unrestin Central America continued, atleast north ofPanama. Data on
mineral industry operations subsequentto yearend 1989 were, at best, sketchy,
but little short-term improvement seemed likely. In the Caribbean, development
efforts in Cuba that had led to an upturn in nickel operations in 1989 apparently
encounter new problems, and a slump in 1990 seemed likely. 
 
 South Africa, The Republic of.—The outlook seemed to be brightening
for mineral producing firms in the Republic of South Africa, as governmental
efforts toeliminate apartheid ledthe ECcountries to eliminate economic sanctions
against the Republic. As the Government's restraints on the population were
lessened, however, civil strife increased, and such strife obviously had
some impact on overall economic activity, includingthat at the mineral industry.
Available information suggests that production results in major commodities
were mixed—some increasing, others falling short of 1989 levels,
with
no distinct patterns developing. 
 
 Developing Afrka.—For most of the African continent, mineral industry
development has been generally less than bright since the end of 1989, and
the outlook is at best clouded. The key copperbelt