N.ATIONAL SECURITY POLICY


that i-t seemed o siderably gre;ter than last fall. In general, hIs hesis
was .thitlit is alw~ays possible 'but that historical precedents may have
become inaccurate as criteria by which to judge the degree of prob-
ability. In he -discussion that followed several points were brought
out: there are -an 'increasing number of signs of toughness on the part
of the Kremlin; the informal opinion of the joint Chiefs now is that
the Soviet Union could begin a major attack from a standing start.
so. thatt 'he usual signs of mobilizattion and preparation would be lack-
ing; there- are increasing indications that some of the basic elements
of Communist dogma no longer hold,- i.e., that ,the Communistbastion
has infinite time in which to achieve its purpose, that capitalist na-
tions-carry within themselves the seeds of their own destruction which
require,.watering but not planting by the Soviet Union, that he Red
Army is used only when a revolutionary atmosphere makes the situa-
tion right for the coup de grdce, etc.-
  The Planning, Staff is immedialtely to:prepare a paper analyzing
the probability of a war in the immediate future, which is to be drafted
in the first instance by Mr. Davies.13

  "3Paper-not identified.

740.5/2-850
Memorandum by the-Deputy, Director of the f0fice of British-Com-
  .nwnwealth and.Northern European. Affairs (Satterthwaite) ..to the
  Deputy   Assistant Secretary   of State for European: Affairs
  (Thompson)

TOP SECRET                        [WASIINGTON,] February 8, 1950.
Subject: Assessment and Appraisal. -of U.S. Objectivres, Commit-
    ments, and Risks in Relation to Military -Power. ,
  The general objectives in relation to military power, in the countries
of the-British Commonwealth and Northern Europe are (1) keep
them strong, and (2) keep..them .friendly. The commitmentsand cor-
responding 1risks and relation of each are, of course, different.
  South Africa.: _We have. no commitments and no risks. This is
largely due to,- geography -and the ,fact that: South Africa .,is not in
danger of attack.
  Aust-ralia' *:andNew ,Zealand..While as yet we haveno        -lommit-
ments in the case of Australia and'New Zealand, if developments in
the Far East continue to deterioriate, we undoubtedly will wish to

..:'For documentation on  nite.d States relations with Australia, -see-Vol.
VI, pp.
189 ff.


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