NBATIONAL -ECURITY POLICY


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cess in Yugoslavia would enable the communists to renew guerrilla
operations against Greece from Yugoslavia as well as from Bulgaria
and Albania. Direct USSR attacks on Yugoslovia would include a
risk of involving the Western Powers and might lead to global war.
  e. Occupation of Finland, while completely within Soviet capabili-
ties, would undoubtedly encounter fierce and continued Finnish guer-
rilla resistance, which might render Finland less useful to the USSR
for the immediate future ,than the present state of Soviet-Finnish
relations.
  f, Afghanistan and Pakistan are of strategic value to the US SR
because of their geographical position. Afghanistan could be occu-
pied with little effort. An attack on Pakistan would require much
more effort and would incur serious risk of global war because of
Pakistan's membership in the British Commonwealth.
  13. Unless the Kremlin is willing to accept global war it will not
commit Soviet armed forces to action in Germany and Austria.
Soviet-Inspired Aggression Using Satellite Forces
  14. The USSR might gain considerably from a policy of initiation
of piecemeal attacks by present or created satellite forces against
Yugoslavia, 1Iran, Greece, Turkey, or other states around the Soviet
periphery. Further, it might be distinctly to the political and military
advantage of the USSR to involve the allied nations progressively
in conflict without a declaration of war on the part of the USSR or
without commitment of its military forces. Such action might leave
the allies with the alternative of fighting an undeclared war, or of
being open to the charge of aggression by initiating a declaration of
war. None of these areas is one in which the USSR particularly needs
the advantage of surprise. Furthermore, the military and political
capabilities of the USSR and its satellites are so great as to permit
it to direct piecemeal action against isolated areas while still retaining
the capability of strategic surprise. A progressive series of peace-
meal attacks from the periphery of the USSR would confront the
United !States and its allies with the issue of global war.
  15. It is presently estimated that Rumania, Bulgaria and Hungary,
collectively do not possess the capabilities for a successful assault on
Asiatic Turkey, although they could overrun portions of European
Turkey. Even with military assistance and leadership from the USSR
comparable to that provided the North Koreans, it is estimated that
Rumania., Bulgaria and Hungary could not successfully attack Asiatic
Turkey. A satellite attack on Yugoslavia is a possibility. A resump-
tion of fighting in Greece is also a possibility.
  16. The use of Polish and Czechoslovakian troops is always a mili-
tary possibility in any action in Europe. However, withdrawal of
large numbers lof troops from Poland and Czec!hoslovakia might re-