NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY


    From the military point of view, the actual and potential capabili-
  ties of the United States, given a continuation of current and projected
  programs, will become less and less effective as a war deterrent. Im-
  provement of the state of readiness will become more and more impor-
  tant not only to inhibit the launching of war by the Soviet Union but
  also to support a national policy designed to reverse the present
  ominous trends in international relations. A building up of the milil-
  tary capabilities of the United States and the free world is a pre-
  condition to the achievement of the objectives outlined in this report
  and to the protection of the United States against disaster.
  Fortunately, the United States military establishment has been
  developed into a unified .and effective force as a result of the.policies
  laid down by the Congress and the vigorous carrying out of these
  policies by the Administration in the fields of both organization and
  economy. It is, therefore, a base upon which increased strength can
  be rapidly built with maximum efficiency and economy.
  2. Political Aspects. The Soviet Union is pursuing the initiative
  in the conflict with the free world. Its atomic capabilities, together
  with its successes in the Far East, have led to an increasing confidence
  on its part and to an increasing nervousness in Western Europe and
  the rest of the free world. We cannot be sure, of course, how vigorously
  the Soviet Union will pursue its initiative, nor can we be sure of the
  strength or weakness of the other free countries in reacting to it. There
  are, however, ominous signs of further deterioration in the Far East.
  There are also some indications that a decline in morale -and confidence
  in Western Europe may be expected. In particular, the situation in
  Germany is unsettled. Should the belief or suspicion spread that the
  free nations are not now able to prevent the Soviet Union from taking,
  if it chooses, the military actions outlined in Chapter V, the determina-
  tion of the free countries to resist probably would lessen and there
  would be an increasing temptation for them to seek a position of
neutrality.
  Politically, recognition of the military implications of -a continua-
tion of present trends will mean that the United States and especially
other free countries will tend to shift to the defensive, or to follow a
dangerous policy of bluff, because the maintenance of a firm initiative
in the cold war is closely related to aggregate strength in being and
readily available.
  This is largely a problem of the incongruity of the current actual
capabilities of the free world and the threat to it, for the free world
has an economic and military potential far superior to the potential
of the Soviet Union and its satellites. The shadow of Soviet force
falls darkly on Western Europe and Asia and supports a policy of


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