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   General - Smuts believes that America can.play an important role
 in Africa. American private investment is required for the develop-
 ment of the Union:of South Africa and is welcomed. Through the
 Point Four program America should be able to make valuable tech-
 nical contributions, particularly in the field of transportation, which
 he considers the paramount need, and in mineral surveys.
   The problem of the Indian in Africa is, if anything, greater than
 the problem of the African native. They are present in large numbers
 and are still immigrating and increasing. Their economic strength is
 in even greater proportion than their numbers. They are a grim and
 tireless people who maintain their separate Indian identity and are
 disliked by the native. The General believes that India itself has too
 many internal problems to be an aggressive force.
   In General Smuts' view there is no present basis for a new approach
 to Russia. President Truman is right in the stand he has taken in this
 respect. Mr. Churchill's position to the contrary was taken for political
 reasons.' Any overtures on the part of the West at this time would
 be considered a sign of weakness by Russia. Only when there is some
 fundamental change in the situation, which will come perhaps through
 some break-up of the unwieldy structure Russia has created, would a
 new approach be possible. Russia appears to have put her major
 offensive effort into the East where she has been highly successful and
 which is open to her. Russian efforts in the West appear to be only
 minor skirmishes.
   In the General's views the forces at play in the Far East are still
 beyond the control of the United States and the West. He was con-
 vinced of this at the time General Marshall's mission failed to achieve
 its objective in China.5 By and large we can do little but sit and wait.
 Even if Southeast Asia falls to Communism, and the prospects of this
 are enhanced by the strong Chinese minorities in many countries and
 by the large Chinese Army which must be kept on the march, the
 General feels that there will ultimately be& a break-up in the area
of
 Communist domination, possibly through economic failure. If such
 a break-up occurs a condition of anarchy and chaos may exist for an
 extended period during which no outside efforts would be effective.
The Asia we have known was largely run by Europeans, as in the case
of India and even in.China. There is no proof that the new leaders
can hold these countries together.

  4In an election campaign speech at Edinburgh on February 14, Churchill
had
suggested a United States-United Kingdom-Soviet Union summit meeting to
consider international control of nuclear weapons.
  'For documentation on the mission to China of President Trumian's Special
Representative, General of the Army George C. Marshall, December 1945-Decem-
ber 1946, see Foreign Relations, 1945, vol. vii, pp. 745 ff.; ibid., 1946,
volume ix;
and ibid., vol. x, pp. 1 ff.


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