FOREIGN RELATIONS, 19 5 0 VOLUME I


  (b) At the other end of the scale, the Soviets might move if our
forces in Korea were completely eliminated and we lost our trained,
experienced officers and men with the resultant severe weakening of
the U.S. military potential. Under such unhappy circumstances the
Soviets would very likely feel that they must move and move now.
  In between these two possibilities, I felt that the Soviets were gain-
ing so much by bleeding the United States, in particular, and the
Western world in general, through the war in Korea, that it would not
be to their immediate advantage to move against us. (The President
agreed with these views.)
  The President asked my feelings about possible Soviet moves in
Europe, mentioning GDR forces attacking West Germany, or Bul-
garian and Hungarian attacks on Tito.
  My reply to the first was that since our own armed forces were
involved, such an attack could not succeed without Red Army aid-
which would mean World War III.
  As to the second, I felt such was a possibility but not a probability,
although not overlooking Kremlin dislike of Tito.
  The President asked about the general state of health of Mr. Stalin.
I summarized my impression of the interview I had with Mr. Stalin
in August 1949. Briefly, that Stalin was in full possession of his facul-
ties, alert mentally, and gave the impression of a vigorous man. He
shows his years (70)-but is in no sense failing in his faculties. I went
on to say that Stalin was the dictator absolute of the ,Soviet Union.
He embodies all the loyalty formerly given the Czar in the temporal
field and, since religion has been abolished in the Soviet Union, he
has some of the attributes of the Deity. In other words, he is adored
and looked up to by the peoples across ,the whole vast empire. The
President asked if I thought Mr. 'Stalin dictated every decision, and I
replied that policy lines were always laid by Mr. Stalin but the Polit
Bureau implemented his policies,:-as necessary. As to a probable suc-
cessor, I said that should Mr. Stalin die in the next few years, my
guess would be Molotov.2 If, on the other hand, Stalin lived for 10
or 15 years more that, making-due allowance for.changes in the situa-
tion in that interval of time, I would suppose Malenkov-3 would be
the most likely successor. Malenkov is already-Secretary General of
the Party, Minister of the Interior, and has many strings in his hand.
   The President asked about the state of public opinion in the Soviet
 Union and I replied that loyalty to the regime was universal, that
 although by education the power to think was being developed, yet
 in that system of government, with secret police, etc., everywhere, there

 'V. M. M-olotov, Soviet Miulster of Foreign Affairs.
 s G. M. Malenkov, Member of the Politburo.


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