FOREIM REELAi0N4S, 1950,, VOLUME I


ments which might conceivably modify Soviet calculations were the
firm United States reaction to events in Korea and the great world
support which our position had received.
  Admiral Hillenkoetter thought an attack on Yugoslavia by Bul-
garia was the most likely contingency because the USSR could avoid
open involvement there. Mr. Kennan said that Yugoslavia might be
attacked either by satellite forces only or by Russian forces in addition.
  Mr. Lay, recalling Pearl Htarbor, raised the question of a possible
Soviet attack directly upon the United States.
  Mr. Kennan thought that in addition to a review of danger spots
we should set up two hypotheses: (1) The USSR has concluded that
war is desirable; we must ask, -where and how will the Soviets begin
it? (2) the USSR has no intention of provoking war at this time;
we must ask, ,what is the USSR likely t do,? For example, the Soviets
might eek to eliminate the Yugoslav salient even though not desirous
of general war.
  Mr. Jessup said that we should include in the problem consideration
of joint plannhing with the UK and other countries respecting Iran,
Yugoslavia, -etc. He also raised the question-of Austria. Mr. Kennan
thought it important to consider Austria. Admiral Hillenkoetter
agreed, but noted that the USSR was moving forces out of Austria.
  Mr. Kennan referred to the probability that the Korean matter
was displeasing to the Chinese Communists and thought the reactions
of that regime should be carefully watched. Admiral Hillenkoetter
noted a report that the Chinese Communist Fourth Army was about
to be moved"into Korea.
  It was agreed that a smaller drafting group would meet at 2 p. m.
today in Mr. Lay's office to prepare a report within twenty-four hours.
The group would consist of:-Mr. KWeinnan or Mr. Bohlen; General
Spalding; Mr. Lanphier; Admiral Hillenkoetter or Mr. Hitchcock.
  It was indicated that the paper referred to at yesterday's Council
meeting relating to orders for General MacArthur5 was now under
JCS consideration and would be handled separately.
  Mr. Kennan remarked that the State Departimnt had some new
thoughts on the 38th parallel. It might be that we would have to
permit air operations, though no ground-force occupation-, north of
that line in order to dislodge the com munist forces from South Korea.

  SGeneral of the Army Douglas MacArthur, U.S. Commander in -Chief, Far
East; Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers in Japan; designated Com-
manding General, United Nations Forces in Korea, by President Truman on
July 8.


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