population impacts are dependent on project employment needs. Total project
employment would
include not only the direct jobs at the Exxon project, but the additional
or secondary jobs created by
increased regional economic activity. The extent to which the local labor
pool would supply
employees for the project would reduce the amount of inmigrant labor required.
Thus, the number
and characteristics of the inmigrating workers (and their families) who would
obtain construction,
operations and indirect or secondary jobs could be used to predict the impact
population. By applying
a family size factor appropriate to each predicted construction, operations
and secondary inmigrant,
the total inmigrant population estimate was developed.

Minor changes in the local study area population already have occurred as
a result of preconstruction
activity. Projections for the local study area population show an initial
rapid increase in population
peaking in the third year of construction, followed by a sustained growth
over the operations period
to a population level about 1600 higher than the baseline (without-project).

The projected population in the local study area was divided into three geographical
areas: the
project area, the Rhinelander area, and the Antigo area. The project area
includes the City of
Crandon and the Townships of Crandon, Lincoln, Nashville, and Elcho. The
Rhinelander area includes
the City of Rhinelander, and the Townships of Crescent, Pine Lake, Newbold,
and Pelican, and the
Antigo area includes the City and Township of Antigo (Fig. 2-13). These three
areas are expected to
receive more than 75% of the inmigrant population moving into the study area.
The remaining
inmigrants are expected to be dispersed throughout the balance of Forest,
Langlade and Oneida
Counties. Table 3-36 shows the population increase and without-project population
projections for
the project, Rhinelander, and Antigo areas and total local study area.



Population Projections'

     Project Area
              Impact
              Popula-
              tion
     Without Net
Year Project Increase
1986   5066      8
1987   5070     148
1988   5075     345
1989   5079     613
1990   5083     395
2000   5126     392
2010   5170     393
2018   5205     375
2019   5210     249
2020   5214     144
2021   5219      61
2022   5223      15



  Table 3-36
for With- and Without-Project Scenarios



Rhinelander Area
        Impact
        Popula-
        tion
Without Net
Project Increase
18,661      10
18,770     133
18,880     326
18,992    620
19,105     493
20,317     488
21,687     490
22,910     467
23,071     313
23,234     182
23,400      78
23,567      20



  Antigo Area
        Impact
        Popula-
        tion
Without Net
Project Increase
10,702      6
10,736      69
10,771     183
10,806     373
10,840     380
11,195     373
11,563     375
11,868     366
11,906     288
11,945     183
11,984      88
12,023      31



Local Study Area2
         Impact
         Popula-
         tion
Without Net
Project Increase
53,459       33
53,617      454
53,776     1105
53,935     2076
54,095     1621
55,732     1603
57,437     1608
58,852     1542
59,033     1070
59,214      635
59,396      280
59,578        79



from Denver Research Institute 1986. Only representative years for each phase

rest, Langlade and Oneida Counties.

ea, the net population increase is projected to be more than 600 people by
the third
tion, decreasing to about 400 above the without-project population for the
duration
or the Rhinelander area, the comparable population increases are more than
600 and
-e. The population increase in the Antigo area is predicted to be about 375,
during the
  A 5% population increase, the largest increase, would occur in the project
area
year of construction. All other projected population increases would be 2%
or less.



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