Rational regime preferences in Europe -- Democracy with whom? Authoritarianism under whom? -- Predictability and democratic consolidation -- The right and the breakdown of Spanish democracy, 1931-1936 -- Democratic transition and consolidation in Spain, 1976-1986 -- Political risks and regime outcomes in Europe before 1940 -- Political risks and regime outcomes in Europe after 1945 -- Consolidation into the future and outside Europe -- Appendix: interviews on the Spanish rights' beliefs in the 1970s and 1980s
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