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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 1960-

Publication Details Click to collapse Cite/Export

  • Creator Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Format Books
  • Publication First edition. New York : Random House, [2007] ©2007
  • Physical Details
    • xxviii, 366 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
  • ISBNs 9781400063512, 1400063515
  • OCLC ocm71833470


  • Includes bibliographical references (pages [331]-358) and index.


  • Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans
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