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Risk-benefit analysis
- Author / Creator
- Available as
- Physical
Details
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- Creator
- Richard Wilson, Edmund A.C. Crouch
- Format
- Books
- Language
- English
- Contributors
- Publication
-
- Second edition
- Cambridge, MA : Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, 2001
- Physical Details
-
- xiii, 370 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm
- ISBNs
- 9780674005297, 0674005295
- OCLC
- ocm48508286
- Previous ed. Crouch appears first on t.p.
- Includes bibliographical references and index.
- 1. Introduction: Perspective on Risk. Perception is Crucial. Definition of Risk. Risk Changes as Events Unfold. Measures of Risk. Different Measures Can Lead to Different Decisions. Absolute or Incremental Risk. Defining the System Boundary. Layout of the Book -- 2. Methods of Risk Calculation and Estimation. Evaluation of "Historical" Risks. "New" Risks: (1) Factorization of an Engineering System with an Event Tree. "New" Risks: (2) of Epidemiology and Its Ambiguities. Risks of Doses Less than Background: The "Linear Default" Beneficial Effects and Hormesis. New Risks: (3) The Use of Animal Data to Estimate Risks to Humans. Probability of Causation. Elicitation of Expert Opinion. Exposure and Dose Estimation. The Risk of a System - the Impact Pathway Approach. Risk of the Impossible. Large and Immeasurable Risks. The Chimera of Zero Risk - Predictable but Irrelevant -- 3. Uncertainty and Variability. Risk Implies Uncertainty. Different Types of Uncertainty. As Risk Changes with Time, So Does Uncertainty. Stochastic Uncertainties. Variability vs. Uncertainty. Uncertainty vs. Error. Independence of Uncertainties. Uncertainty in Cancer Risk Assessment. Monte Carlo Models. Model Uncertainty. Uncertainty in Expert Elicitation. Overconfidence in Uncertainty Estimates -- 4. Perception of Risks. Tversky's Analyses. Other Attributes and Dimensions. Managers and Decision Makers Consider Public Perception. Comparing Risks (Risk-Risk Comparisons). Comparing Risks for the Same Benefit (Cost Effectiveness). Expression of Risks. Public Misconceptions. Common Public Misconceptions. Recipe for Communication -- 5. Formal Comparison of Risk and Benefit. Distributional Inequity. Deriving Suitable Value Functions. Choice of Discounting Rates. Approximations and Simplified Schemes -- 6. Risk Management: Managing and Reducing Risks. We Calculate Risks in Order to Reduce Them. Schemes for Analyzing Risk Management Options. Criteria for Risk Management. The Ban or Taboo. Best Available Control Technology. Risk-Cost-Benefit Analysis. The Precautionary Principle. Regulation on Upper Limit of Risk. Risk versus Certainty of Information. The "De Minimis" Risk. Risk-related Decisions of the U.S. EPA. Probability of Causation. Management by Avoiding Precursors. Asbestos and Dioxin. Reducing Risk by Technological Improvement. Radiation Protection. Economic Incentives. The Multiple Uses of a Risk Assessment. Use of Comparisons to Guide a Manager. Safety Culture and the Importance of Incentives. Congress as the Filter for Societal Values. The Dual Role of the Courts -- 7. Lists of Risks. Some Examples of Risk Calculations. The Risk (of Death) in Living. Life Expectancy. A Selection of Risks: Historically Calculated. Time (or Action) to Reach One in a Million Risk. Loss of Life Expectancy (LOLE). A Partial List of Catastrophes. Amounts Paid to Avert Deaths. Variation and Uncertainties. Detailed Discussions of Some Risks -- 8. Bibliography. Books. Journals. Websites. Specific References -- App. 2. Application of EPA's Hazardous Waste Identification Rule -- App. 3. Procedure Used for Age Adjustment by NCHS -- App. 4. Are Mushrooms Safe to Eat, or Should They Be Considered Toxic Waste? -- App. 5. Evaluating the Lung-Cancer Risks Due to Smoking, Exposure to Asbestos, and Their Combination